When you open the newspaper and see an
article on antigravity or molecular gastronomy or teleportation,
should you take it seriously, or just laugh? Though all are common
now, concepts ranging from identity theft to kids with cell phones
to computer chips embedded in pets may have made the tabloid
headlines a decade ago. Each has implications for businesses
worldwide: the larger view of identity theft includes encryption,
privacy legislation and profiling for direct marketing; similarly,
the proliferation of cell phones has created new opportunities for
games, messaging and "virtual mobs"; and the chips in pets are just
a piece of the wave of new smart tags for inventory control, market
research and security.
Futurists use simulations, models, structured interviews and
systematic research to separate the wheat from the chaff, but [short
of launching a detailed and potentially expensive survey] what can
you do to identify significant new advancements? Here is a list of
12 questions that may impart some structure to your guesses.
1. What Is New? Sometimes the answer is nothing. Hype is
often used to dress up an old product. Or to push an offering that
is already available from a competitor. "New and improved" may
actually be neither. Still, a novel combination may have a great
impact. Arguably, no single element of the first Web browser was
completely novel, but it brought together the elements with such
elegance and insight that the Internet had to make room for everyone
.
2. Is It Real? Often there's not enough
information to answer this one, but that's not an excuse not to ask.
Some dotcoms would have gone nowhere if investors had bothered to
push for proof.
3. How Far Along Is It? Is it a proposal to a
standards body? Is it a prototype? Is it in production? Most new
technologies make little impact or fail outright. The path to
adoption is not as long as it once was, but it is still arduous. The
further along the technology is, the more seriously you should take
it.
4. Where Is The Push? Though government and
large corporations do occasionally make foolish investments, they
have established protocols that screen out the worst schemes. And,
they also risk their reputations if they back a loser.
5. Is Anyone Using It Now? Often, a new
technology will find a comfortable niche years before it finds its
true market. This is what happened with the fuel cell - used in
Apollo spacecraft and now teed up for next generation cars. The real
world experience of a technology in another realm can validate its
capability and suggest new possibilities .
6. What Is The Competition? Regardless of how
good a technology is, if competing technology already owns the
market, gaining a foothold will be tough. There's an adage in the
world of semiconductors – "Gallium arsenide is the future of chips,
and it always will be." But in the case of gallium arsenide, the
competitor is silicon, which works off a huge installed base and is
constantly being researched and improved.
7. What Is It Like? Sorting is a classic way
to create a context for analysis. It provides numerous points for
comparison. In the world of information technology, five themes may
be used to beneficially classify a new technology: Pervasive
computing, Knowledge management, Real-time, Deep computing and
Ease-of-use. The point here is not to build a scientific taxonomy,
but to provide reference points and gain understanding. .
8. Where Does It Fit? Nothing exists in
isolation and almost all advances depend on other technologies to
create value. What does it work with? What infrastructure is
presupposed? The idea here is to see the technology in a richer
context.
9. What Is The Value Proposition? This is a
big consideration. What promise is being made, and can it be
fulfilled? What's the value proposition for your endeavor? Look for
surprises.
10. Are There Any Obvious Barriers? Take a
look at the implied business model, industry standards, safety
issues, privacy concerns or contractual obligations. But, consider
how often barriers fall. Generally, when there aren't any real
arguments that something is impossible, people find ways to make it
possible.
11. Where Will Value Be Captured? Any link
in a chain has the potential to become commoditized, while another
link can become the premium. Technology can often cause such a
shift. Who will own the market's control point in the future?
12. Which Of My Capabilities Is Affected?
If you don't want to do a full-fledged capabilities analysis, just
consider your key processes, such as procurement, planning and
development.
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