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New Technology
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12 questions to

evaluate new technology

 

   

Categorizing, understanding and filtering the latest information on emerging technologies can be made easier if you know what to ask. Here are 12 questions that can help you quickly ascertain whether a closer look could be important to your business.

 

  When you open the newspaper and see an article on antigravity or molecular gastronomy or teleportation, should you take it seriously, or just laugh? Though all are common now, concepts ranging from identity theft to kids with cell phones to computer chips embedded in pets may have made the tabloid headlines a decade ago. Each has implications for businesses worldwide: the larger view of identity theft includes encryption, privacy legislation and profiling for direct marketing; similarly, the proliferation of cell phones has created new opportunities for games, messaging and "virtual mobs"; and the chips in pets are just a piece of the wave of new smart tags for inventory control, market research and security.

Futurists use simulations, models, structured interviews and systematic research to separate the wheat from the chaff, but [short of launching a detailed and potentially expensive survey] what can you do to identify significant new advancements? Here is a list of 12 questions that may impart some structure to your guesses.

1. What Is New?
Sometimes the answer is nothing. Hype is often used to dress up an old product. Or to push an offering that is already available from a competitor. "New and improved" may actually be neither. Still, a novel combination may have a great impact. Arguably, no single element of the first Web browser was completely novel, but it brought together the elements with such elegance and insight that the Internet had to make room for everyone .

2. Is It Real?
Often there's not enough information to answer this one, but that's not an excuse not to ask. Some dotcoms would have gone nowhere if investors had bothered to push for proof.

3. How Far Along Is It?
Is it a proposal to a standards body? Is it a prototype? Is it in production? Most new technologies make little impact or fail outright. The path to adoption is not as long as it once was, but it is still arduous. The further along the technology is, the more seriously you should take it.

4. Where Is The Push?
Though government and large corporations do occasionally make foolish investments, they have established protocols that screen out the worst schemes. And, they also risk their reputations if they back a loser.

5. Is Anyone Using It Now?
Often, a new technology will find a comfortable niche years before it finds its true market. This is what happened with the fuel cell - used in Apollo spacecraft and now teed up for next generation cars. The real world experience of a technology in another realm can validate its capability and suggest new possibilities .

6. What Is The Competition?
Regardless of how good a technology is, if competing technology already owns the market, gaining a foothold will be tough. There's an adage in the world of semiconductors – "Gallium arsenide is the future of chips, and it always will be." But in the case of gallium arsenide, the competitor is silicon, which works off a huge installed base and is constantly being researched and improved.

7. What Is It Like?
Sorting is a classic way to create a context for analysis. It provides numerous points for comparison. In the world of information technology, five themes may be used to beneficially classify a new technology: Pervasive computing, Knowledge management, Real-time, Deep computing and Ease-of-use. The point here is not to build a scientific taxonomy, but to provide reference points and gain understanding. .

8. Where Does It Fit?
Nothing exists in isolation and almost all advances depend on other technologies to create value. What does it work with? What infrastructure is presupposed? The idea here is to see the technology in a richer context.

9. What Is The Value Proposition?
This is a big consideration. What promise is being made, and can it be fulfilled? What's the value proposition for your endeavor? Look for surprises.

10. Are There Any Obvious Barriers?
Take a look at the implied business model, industry standards, safety issues, privacy concerns or contractual obligations. But, consider how often barriers fall. Generally, when there aren't any real arguments that something is impossible, people find ways to make it possible.

11. Where Will Value Be Captured?
Any link in a chain has the potential to become commoditized, while another link can become the premium. Technology can often cause such a shift. Who will own the market's control point in the future?

12. Which Of My Capabilities Is Affected?                                                  If you don't want to do a full-fledged capabilities analysis, just consider your key processes, such as procurement, planning and development.

 

 

       
 
 
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