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Weak Signals and Innovation
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What emerging technologies could change the game? Companies are proficient at tracking developments in existing technologies that could affect their business. But this focus can deflect attention from emerging technologies that could be important in the future. |
Definition of Weak Signals: Idea or trend that will affect how we do business, what business we do, and the environment in which we will work. Surprise: Weak Signals are new and surprising from the signal receiver's vantage point (although others may already perceive it). Elusive: Weak Signals are difficult to track down amid other noise and signals. Often Dismissed: Weak Signals are threats or opportunities to the business often scoffed at by people who "know". Eventually Emerges: Weak Signals usually have a substantial lag time before it will mature and become mainstream. Opportunity Here: Weak Signals therefore represent an opportunity to learn, grow and evolve…when detected it becomes an Early Alert. Although Weak Signals have become more prevalent in the discipline of Innovation Management during the last decade, the concept is not new. Weak Signals are closely connected to other terms like discontinuities, radical or surprising changes and critical events. Igor Ansoff talked about a concept of "strategic surprise", which he describes as "sudden, urgent, unfamiliar changes in the firm's perspective which threaten either a major profit reversal or loss of a major opportunity". His concept of strategic surprise, to a great extent, resembles the concept of Weak Signals that has been presented later by Innovation Management experts. Some synonyms for Weak Signals are: disruptive events, structural breaks, discontinuities, surprises, bifurcations and unprecedented developments. Weak Signals are considered developments on the horizon which are possible, and which, if they occur, will change everything. Weak Signals may emerge as sudden and unique incidents that can constitute turning points in the evolution of a certain trend. Weak Signals are assumed to be improbable, but it would have large and immediate consequences for organizational stakeholders if it were to take place. Weak Signals are one of the most unpredictable and potentially damaging triggers of change of four conceivable components of change: trends, cycles, emerging issues, and wild cards. Who in your industry is skilled at picking up weak signals and acting on them ahead of everyone else? If an organization in your industry has repeatedly done a good job of detecting and acting on signals from the periphery before others, you may want to emulate some of its practices. Did your competitor succeed because some key leaders asked the right questions, or did the organization’s knowledge management system flag unusual occurrences? How do you identify important signals? A good way is to select a signal and fast-forward its development using scenario planning or other future-mapping techniques. Is there an unthinkable scenario? To see the full effect of potential future surprises, managers should develop at least one “unthinkable” scenario that, while remotely plausible, is so unlikely that it’s easily dismissed as not worth considering. By explicitly entertaining these unthinkable possibilities - positive and negative - you can begin to recognize the many ways to interpret the signals in the current environment. |
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